Agriculture is a major player in the world economic scene. Trade traverses both national and
international borders. Therefore, growth is always expected as the world becomes more interconnected and globalised.
With this in mind, a recent 2021 report published by the European Commission made predictions about the EU agriculture market and its growth and evolution between 12 Free Trade Agreement partners (FTA) by 2030. This report focuses on these 12 FTA countries which include Australia, Canada, Chile, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay), Mexico, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The report’s goal is focused on the impacts of the EU’s exports and imports of food commodities with these trade agreement partners by 2030. Giving an in-depth prediction of what the export and imports market of certain food commodities may be. The report stated that by 2030 these trade agreement partners would be the source of 34% of the EU’s imports.
Out of these 12, Several countries are predicted for competitive growth. However, many within the ASEAN countries stood out, such as Indonesia and Thailand.
Indonesia’s Vegetable Oil and Meal presence in the EU Market
(Source: Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture)
Within this report, it was predicted that Indonesia will become the largest FTA partner within ASEAN to provide agricultural goods to the EU, with 4.78 billion euros worth of food commodities being exported. This equates to 12% of the total imports between the 12 FTA countries. The second ASEAN country being Vietnam with 1.96 billion and 5.1%.
In this 12%, Indonesia’s largest export and market share is in vegetable oil and meals with products such as palm oil. The baseline of this export being predicted at 3792.1 million euros by 2030. However, an ambitious prediction marks it towards 4104.8 million euros. Although still placed second to Mercosur, it is the largest of the ASEAN countries. Showing a rapid and substantial growth and growing relationship with the EU’s agricultural environment.
Thailand’s Rice and Poultry Exports
(Source: Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture)
Also stated in the report were Thailand’s development and market share in rice exports to the EU, showing a continued dominance of the market share between ASEAN countries and between the 12 FTA countries as a whole. With predicted growth from 72% to 78%, which amounts to 358.8 million euros in rice exports. Although not an exceptional percentage increase from now, it indicates Thailand’s continued dominance and growth in rice export.
Including rice, Thailand has been predicted to have a large growth in poultry exports, becoming the second-highest within the 12 FTA’s and largest within the ASEAN countries, increasing to 635 million euros.
The predicted growth of these two food commodities within Thailand shows a strong relationship building with the EU and the trade of agricultural goods.
ASEAN’s future with Europe
This report has shed light on the potential opportunities that are rising between ASEAN and the EU. Showing prediction of large-scale growth in certain food commodities such as vegetable oil and rice. Only time will tell if these predictions hold with the food commodity market on the ever-evolving path. Still, from what is shown, EU and ASEAN agriculture trade relations are strengthening and will continue to do so in the future.
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